作者：农业部市场预警专家委员会著
页数：161页
出版社：中国农业科学技术出版社
出版日期：2017
ISBN：9787511630179
电子书格式：pdf/epub/txt
内容简介
本书为《中国农业展望报告 (2017-2026) 》的英文版, 未来10年, 中国经济发展进入新常态, 经济增长将由高速增长适应性调整为中高速增长, 农业发展面临新的机遇与挑战。本书以粮食、棉花、油料、糖料、蔬菜、水果、肉类、蛋类、奶类、饲料、水产品等主要农产品为对象, 对未来10年的生产、消费、价格、贸易进行了展望。
作者简介
农业部市场预警专家委员会是2011年11月28日成立的，针对近年来农产品市场波动比较大的现状，为更好地应对和预警，农业部研究决定成立的。委员会的任务是密切关注国内外农产品市场运行情况，及时提出政策建议，还要从稳定农产品市场和促进农民增收出发，适时、主动回应和引导社会舆论。农业部市场预警专家委员会，首批确定了10名委员，聘期为5年。要求专家必须熟悉和掌握我国国民经济运行情况、国家宏观经济政策、农业政策及理论等，能够独立承担和完成专题研究任务。
本书特色
Since2014,China,drawingupontheexperienceandpracticesofcountrieswithmaturemarketeconomytoguidemarketexpectation,hasconvenedtheChinaAgriculturalOutlookConferenceandreleasedtheChinaAgriculturalOutlookReportforthreeconsecutiveyears;inparticular,theChinaAgriculturalOutlook(2015-2024)releasedinthenameoftheMarketEarlyWarningExpertCommittee,MinistryofAgriculturein2015hasprovidedimportantreferencefordomesticmarketplayersandrelevantsectorsregardingadjustingtheexpectationofagriculturalmarket.Theyear2016markstheopeningofthe13thFive-YearPlan(FYP)periodandisalsothekeystageforsupply-sidestructuralreformsinagriculture.ThefurtherimprovementofthesystemofChinaagriculturaloutlookandthereleaseoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook(2016-2025)isanimportantmeasuretoimplementarangeofimportantdevelopmentstrategiesandarrangements,includingSeveralOpinionsoftheCentralCommitteeofCPCandtheStateCouncilonPromotingtheReformofPriceMechanism,SeveralOpinionsoftheCPCCentralCommitteeandtheStateCouncilontheImplementationofNewConceptsontheDevelopmentandtheAccelerationoftheAgriculturalModernizationfortheRealizationofModerateProsperityinAllRespects,GuidanceoftheStateCouncilonAdvancingtheInternetPlusInitiativeandCircularoftheStateCouncilonPrintingandIssuingtheActionOutlineforPromotingBigDataDevelopment,andisofcrucialimportancetoreviewthe12thFYPperiodandplanforagriculturaldevelopmentinthe13thFYPperiod.ThebasicconclusionoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook(2016-2025)isthebaselineprojectionmadebyexpertsandrelevantsectors,adoptingtheChinaAgriculturalMonitoringandEarly-warningSystem(CAMES),developedbytheAgriculturalMonitoringandEarly-warningTeamofAgriculturalInformationInsituteofCAAS,onthebasisoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook(2015-2024),takingintoconsiderationdevelopmentsofmarket,policy,climateandmacroeconomicsofthepreviousyear,andbasedonspecificassumptionsofmacroeconomics,agriculturalpolicies,climateconditions,innovationofscienceandtechnology,resourceendowmentandchangesofinternationalmarkets.BaselinedatamainlycomesfromstatisticsreleasedbyChinastatisticsdepartmentsandtheagriculturalmarketmonitoringdatareleasedbyagriculturaldepartments,andalsoincludesfieldinvestigationdataaccumulatedbyrelevantresearchinstitutions.TheChinaAgriculturalOutlook(2016-2025),inparticular,reviewedthesituationofagriculturalmarketinChinaduringthe12thFYPperiod,madeprojectionsonthefeaturesandtrendoftheoperationofChina’sagriculturalmarketduringthe13thFYPperiod,thuswillprovideimportantreferenceforthedevelopmentandimplementationofthenewFYP.TheMarketEarlyWarningExpertCommitteeofMOAreviewedandapprovedthebasicconclusionoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook(2016-2025).TheCommitteeiscomposedofexpertsandacademiciansfromthefollowingentities:DepartmentofAgriculturalEconomy,NDRC,DepartmentofEconomyandTrade,NDRC,AcademyofMacroeconomicResearch,NDRC,CirculationIndustryPromotionCenter,MOFCOM,ChinaNationalGrainandOilsInformationCenter,RenminUniversityofChina,ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences(CASS),UniversityofInternationalBusinessandEconomics,ShanghaiJiaoTongUniversity,DepartmentofSectoralPolicyandLaw,MOA,DepartmentofMarketandEconomicInformation,MOA,DepartmentofDevelopmentandPlanning,MOA,DepartmentofCropProduction,MOA,DepartmentofAnimalProduction,MOA,FisheriesBureau,MOA,RuralEconomyResearchCenter,MOA,InformationCenter,MOA,AgriculturalTradePromotionCenter,MOA,InstituteofAgriculturalEconomicsandDevelopment,CAAS,andAgricultureInformationInstitute,CAAS.ExpertsofthesystemofindustrialtechnologiesofmodernagriculturehavemadeimportantcontributionstotheOutlookReportintermsoftheprovisionofdataandthediscussionandrevisionofOutlookconclusions.EverychapteroftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook(2016-2025)hasbeenbasedonyearsofstudyofproductanalystsandthedistillationoftheirhardworkandwisdom.Tobespecific,Chapter1OverviewisauthoredbyLiGanqiong;Chapter2Cerealsiswrittenbyriceanalysts,PengChao,ZhangHuanandGaoQiang,wheatanalystCaoHuiandcornanalystsXuWeipingandXiYinsheng;Chapter3OilseedsandOilseedProductsiswrittenbysoybeananalystsYinRuifengandXuXuegao,oilseedanalystsZhangWenliandLiSonglin;Chapter4CottonisauthoredbycottonanalystsZhaiXuelingandLiXiang;Chapter5SugariseditedbysugaranalystsXuXue,MaKaiandMaGuangxia;Chapter6VegetablesisauthoredbyvegetableanalystsLiHuishang,KongFantaoandWangShengwei;Chapter7FruitsiseditedbyfruitanalystsWuJieandZhaoJunye;Chapter8MeatisauthoredbyporkanalystsZhuZengyongandZhangXuebiao,poultryanalystsZhangLiandZhuHaiboandbeefandmuttonanalystsSiZhizhiandQuChunhong;Chapter9PoultryEggsiswrittenbypoultryegganalystsLiZhemin,LiGanqiongandZhangChao;Chapter10DairyiseditedbydairyanalystsWangDongjieandDongXiaoxia;Chapter11AquaticProductsisauthoredbyaquaticproductanalystsShenChen,LiuJingjingandZhangJingyi;andChapter12FeediswrittenbyfeedanalystsZhangQiaoandTaoSha.AllstaffoftheAgricultureInformationInstitute,CAAS,ledbyDirectorSunTanhasprovidedstrongguaranteeforthehigh-qualityperformanceandsmoothcompletionofOutlookactivitiesfor2016.ChinaAgriculturalMonitoringandEarly-warningInnovationTeam,ledbyResearcherXuShiweiasChiefScientist,hasprovidedbasicdatasystemandCAMESmodelsimulationandpredicationtechnology.Teammembers,includingLiGanqiong,PanYuehong,ZhangYongen,ZhangYumei,WuJianzhai,WangShengwei,WangDongjie,ChenWei,ZhuangJiayu,LiuJiajia,ZhangChao,RenYufeng,LiYanniandWangYu,havedonetremendousconcreteanddetailedworksuchasdatacalculation,reportrevisionandChinese-Englishtranslation.TheChinaAgriculturalScienceandTechnologyPresshasmadeeffortsintype-settingandprinting.ThereleaseoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook(2016-2025),aftertheChinaAgriculturalOutlook(2015-2024),bytheMarketEarlyWarningExpertCommittee,MOA,signifiesthefledglingofagriculturaloutlookactivitiesinChinaandthesteadyandsoliddevelopmentofthesystemofglobalagriculturalsurveyandanalysisinChina.Sincemarketsituationanalysisshouldnotonlybebasedonthelatestinformationofagricultureandrelatedsectors,andmarketdemandandsupplyissusceptibletouncertaintiesofclimate,politicsandpolicy,theChinaAgriculturalOutlook(2016-2025)couldmakingmistakesinitspredications.Wewillgraduallyexploretheestablishmentofmechanismfortheanalysisandassessmentofpredicationdeviationssoastoprovidemoreaccurateinformationforusers.Wesincerelyinvitedomesticandforeigncolleaguestoprovidevaluableopinionsforimprovingourfuturestudies.
