作者：宋连莲，刘帆
页数：262
出版社：科学出版社
出版日期：2017
ISBN：9787030523280
电子书格式：pdf/epub/txt
内容简介
宋连莲、刘帆著的《统计模型和应用研究》针对常用的probit模型、MNL模型、survival等离散选择模型和贝叶斯、多选择等动态模型进行了系统的描述和分析，并在此基础上，构建出新型的拓展模型，解决新的实际问题。本书融合统计学、经济学和行为学三门学科的基础知识，论述统计模型在消费者购买研究、客户关系管理、电视节目观看行为研究、广告收视率预测研究、网页优化研究、客户信用评估等领域的应用价值。本书适用于统计学、经济学和管理科学等学科教学科研人员及学生，也适合大量参与创新、研发活动的企业决策者、实施者及咨询机构人员等阅读。本书的诸多实证研究与结论，以及所提出的拓展研究模型，可以在企业高层管理者面对复杂多变的市场需求时，提出较为精准的预测方案，帮助其理解和分析并制定相应的策略。
本书特色
本书针对常用的probit模型、MNL模型、survival等离散选择模型和贝叶斯、多选择等动态模型进行了系统的描述和分析，并在此基础上，构建出新型的拓展模型，解决新的实际问题。本书融合统计学、经济学和行为学三门学科的基础知识，论述统计模型在消费者购买研究、客户关系管理、电视节目观看行为研究、广告收视率预测研究、网页优化研究、客户信用评估等领域的应用价值。
目录
Contents
1 General Statistical Models 1
1.1 Motivation 1
1.2 Properties of Discrete Choice Models 3
1.3 Multinomial Logit Model 5
1.4 Nested Logit Model 7
1.5 Probit Models 9
1.6 Mixed Logits 11
1.7 Negative Binomial Distribution 12
2 Customer-base Analysis 19
2.1 Introduction 19
2.2 Research Background 22
2.3 Week Effect on Purchasing Pattern 27
2.4 The Mixture Gamma Heterogeneity 47
2.5 Conclusions 66
3 Identifying Future Defaulters: A Hierarchical Bayesian Method 69
3.1 Introduction 69
3.2 Model Specification 72
3.3 Extension 73
3.4 Estimation 74
3.5 Empirical Analysis 78
3.6 Discussions and Conclusions 86
4 Modeling Audience Choice Behavior on Television Programs 89
4.1 Introduction 89
4.2 Literature Related to the Dynamic Multiple Programs Adoption Model 91
4.3 A Dynamic Multiple Programs Adoption Model 94
4.4 Model Construction 98
4.5 Empirical Observations 110
4.6 Estimation Results 111
4.7 Conclusions and Limitations 116
5 Measuring Television Commercial Performance 119
5.1 Television Audience Behavior towards Advertisements 119
5.2 Literature Review 121
5.3 Problem Introduction 124
5.4 Data Analysis for Model Building 128
5.5 Methodology and a Hypothetical Example 132
5.6 Empirical Examples for Model Application 150
5.7 Conclusions and Limitations 157
6 Modeling the Audience’s Dynamic Decision Procedure 161
6.1 Introduction 161
6.2 Data 163
6.3 Model Development 166
6.4 Estimation Discussion 171
6.5 Managerial Implications 175
6.6 Conclusions and Future Research Directions 178
7 Click Behavior and Web Design 180
7.1 Introduction 180
7.2 Web Design Problem Illustration 181
7.3 Related Literature 183
7.4 Modeling Methods in the Use of Time Analysis 184
7.5 The Web-log File and Data Preparation 187
7.6 Use of Time Models for Web-log Data 188
7.7 Applications to the Design of the Home Page of a Website 192
7.8 Conclusions 197
8 Multiple Choices of Web Links When Searching for Information 199
8.1 Problem Description 199
8.2 Research Background 201
8.3 Model Construction 203
8.4 The Clickstream Data Preparation 205
8.5 Empirical Study 207
8.6 Practical Implications 209
8.7 Conclusions 212
8.8 Limitations and Future Researches 213
9 Modeling Waiting Time of Online Application on Education Website 215
9.1 Introduction and Literature Review 215
9.2 Empirical Observation 217
9.3 Survival Model Analysis 219
9.4 Basic Model Selection 222
9.5 Proportional Hazard Model 226
9.6 Conclusions 230
10 Measuring the Entrepreneurship Performance via Improved Global Entrepreneurship Index 232
10.1 Introduction 232
10.2 Study Background 233
10.3 Problem Formulation 235
10.4 Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis 239
10.5 Empirical Analysis 240
10.6 Conclusions 244
References 246
Appendix 259
1 General Statistical Models 1
1.1 Motivation 1
1.2 Properties of Discrete Choice Models 3
1.3 Multinomial Logit Model 5
1.4 Nested Logit Model 7
1.5 Probit Models 9
1.6 Mixed Logits 11
1.7 Negative Binomial Distribution 12
2 Customer-base Analysis 19
2.1 Introduction 19
2.2 Research Background 22
2.3 Week Effect on Purchasing Pattern 27
2.4 The Mixture Gamma Heterogeneity 47
2.5 Conclusions 66
3 Identifying Future Defaulters: A Hierarchical Bayesian Method 69
3.1 Introduction 69
3.2 Model Specification 72
3.3 Extension 73
3.4 Estimation 74
3.5 Empirical Analysis 78
3.6 Discussions and Conclusions 86
4 Modeling Audience Choice Behavior on Television Programs 89
4.1 Introduction 89
4.2 Literature Related to the Dynamic Multiple Programs Adoption Model 91
4.3 A Dynamic Multiple Programs Adoption Model 94
4.4 Model Construction 98
4.5 Empirical Observations 110
4.6 Estimation Results 111
4.7 Conclusions and Limitations 116
5 Measuring Television Commercial Performance 119
5.1 Television Audience Behavior towards Advertisements 119
5.2 Literature Review 121
5.3 Problem Introduction 124
5.4 Data Analysis for Model Building 128
5.5 Methodology and a Hypothetical Example 132
5.6 Empirical Examples for Model Application 150
5.7 Conclusions and Limitations 157
6 Modeling the Audience’s Dynamic Decision Procedure 161
6.1 Introduction 161
6.2 Data 163
6.3 Model Development 166
6.4 Estimation Discussion 171
6.5 Managerial Implications 175
6.6 Conclusions and Future Research Directions 178
7 Click Behavior and Web Design 180
7.1 Introduction 180
7.2 Web Design Problem Illustration 181
7.3 Related Literature 183
7.4 Modeling Methods in the Use of Time Analysis 184
7.5 The Web-log File and Data Preparation 187
7.6 Use of Time Models for Web-log Data 188
7.7 Applications to the Design of the Home Page of a Website 192
7.8 Conclusions 197
8 Multiple Choices of Web Links When Searching for Information 199
8.1 Problem Description 199
8.2 Research Background 201
8.3 Model Construction 203
8.4 The Clickstream Data Preparation 205
8.5 Empirical Study 207
8.6 Practical Implications 209
8.7 Conclusions 212
8.8 Limitations and Future Researches 213
9 Modeling Waiting Time of Online Application on Education Website 215
9.1 Introduction and Literature Review 215
9.2 Empirical Observation 217
9.3 Survival Model Analysis 219
9.4 Basic Model Selection 222
9.5 Proportional Hazard Model 226
9.6 Conclusions 230
10 Measuring the Entrepreneurship Performance via Improved Global Entrepreneurship Index 232
10.1 Introduction 232
10.2 Study Background 233
10.3 Problem Formulation 235
10.4 Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis 239
10.5 Empirical Analysis 240
10.6 Conclusions 244
References 246
Appendix 259
